MARKETS SAYSeptember 25, 2026 — Follow the smart money, daily. |
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Today, one trader, operating under the pseudonym `0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465`, is sitting on a staggering $810K in P&L from a single live position. Ranked #3 among daily earners with a total of $566K, this trader's conviction in a specific political outcome for 2026 is paying off handsomely, at least for now. Meanwhile, Bitcoin continues its upward trajectory, and a major international football upset rocked the markets. |
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D-Wave's Political Power Playpolitics63.5%$810K P&L Trader `0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465` is making a significant bet on the future of American politics. Holding YES shares in the "2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House" market, this trader has amassed a $810K P&L, representing a 27% return on an average entry price of $0.50. The market currently pegs the probability of a Democratic sweep at 63.5%, suggesting a strong belief in continued party dominance through the midterms. |
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Bitcoin Avoids $35K Plungecrypto$2K P&L The same trader, `0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465`, also saw a smaller but decisive win in the crypto markets. They held NO shares on "Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026?", earning a $2K P&L with a 14% return. This conviction bet, entered 130 days ago at an average price of $0.85, paid off as Bitcoin evidently avoided such a significant downturn, with the market resolving at 97.4% for 'NO'. |
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Brazil Stumbles, Australia Soarsworld2.1%-70.5pp In a dramatic shift, the market for "Will Brazil win on 2026-09-25?" plummeted by 70.5 percentage points today, settling at a mere 2.1%. This sharp decline coincided with the "Will Australia win on 2026-09-25?" market surging by 53.0 percentage points to 62.5%. With a combined 24-hour volume exceeding $640K across both markets, it appears Australia secured a definitive victory against Brazil in their match today, catching many traders off guard. |
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Bitcoin Holds $82K Thresholdcrypto98.4%+17.8pp The crypto market showed strong conviction today, with the probability of "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on September 25?" surging by 17.8 percentage points to 98.4%. This upward swing, driven by $190K in 24-hour volume, indicates that Bitcoin has successfully maintained its position above the $82,000 mark as of today's date, reinforcing positive sentiment around its current valuation. |
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GamerLegion's Dota 2 Domination100.0%+69.0pp Esports saw a decisive outcome in the "Dota 2: GamerLegion vs 1win - Game 1 Winner" market. GamerLegion's probability of winning Game 1 surged by 69.0 percentage points, reaching a definitive 100.0%. This sharp move, fueled by $831K in 24-hour volume, confirms a clean victory for GamerLegion in the opening match against 1win, settling a heavily traded market. |
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Korea Open Tennis Heats Up32.5%-40.0pp The Korea Open saw significant action today as the market for "Korea Open: Katie Volynets vs Kimberly Birrell" registered $615K in 24-hour volume, representing 100% of its all-time trading. Volynets' probability to win plummeted by 40.0 percentage points, now standing at 32.5%. This dramatic shift suggests a strong market consensus that Kimberly Birrell is now heavily favored to win their match. |
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● MARKET MOVERS Today's biggest probability swings included Brazil's win chances collapsing by 70.5pp, while Australia's surged 53.0pp in their football match. In esports, GamerLegion's Game 1 win probability in Dota 2 jumped 69.0pp to 100.0%, and Bitcoin's likelihood of staying above $82,000 rose 17.8pp. Conversely, Mirra Andreeva's chances in the Singapore Open dropped 60.0pp. |
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▲ VOLUME SPIKES Tennis matches dominated the volume spikes, with the Korea Open's Volynets vs Birrell seeing $615K in activity and the Singapore Open's Andreeva vs Fernandez drawing $397K. Another Korea Open match, Bondar vs Ruse, also saw $129K in fresh volume. College football also picked up steam with Florida Atlantic and Hawai'i vs. Wyoming markets seeing over $100K and $97K respectively. |
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Today’s Leaderboard #1 raybanman +$801K · #2 0xBc43..7816 +$741K · #3 0x2c33..5465 +$566K · #4 HomeRunHazard +$477K · #5 maz26 +$437K |
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Markets Say — Where the smart money goes before the headlines. marketssay.com · Data from Polymarket · AI-generated analysis · Not financial advice |