MARKETS SAY

August 13, 2026 — Follow the smart money, daily.

Today, 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465 pulled in a staggering +$464K, making them the top earner by a wide margin. This whale isn't just making waves; they're creating tsunamis across multiple markets. Their biggest play, a $50K gain in the '2026 Balance of Power' market, shows a clear stance on the upcoming midterms. Meanwhile, another conviction bet on Bitcoin also padded their wallet, proving that diversified plays are paying off big.

Midterm Bets Heat Uppolitics50.5%+$50K

As the 2026 midterm elections draw closer, the political landscape is heating up, and so are the prediction markets. Trader 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465, today's top earner, has taken a clear position in the "2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House" market. They hold no shares, effectively betting against a Democratic sweep, and have already netted $50K from this position. With the market currently sitting at a finely balanced 50.5%, indicating high uncertainty, their early entry at an average of $0.50 has yielded a 1% return.

Crude Oil's August Surgeeconomy84.5%+$20K (14% return)

Global energy markets are volatile, and crude oil prices are once again making headlines. The "WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in August?" market is currently trading at a robust 84.5%, suggesting strong confidence in a price surge. Trader luck00004, a notable earner today, made a conviction bet here, entering the market with YES shares in a price range of $0.66-$0.83. Their position, established over the last 10 days, has already generated a $20K profit, representing a 14% return as WTI marches towards the $95 mark.

Vance Nomination Odds Shiftpolitics56.8%+$27K (14% return)

The 2028 Republican presidential nomination is still years away, but the prediction markets are already sizing up potential contenders. J.D. Vance's prospects are a hot topic, with the market asking if he will win the nomination. Trader Nooserac has staked a claim, holding no shares in this market, indicating a bet against Vance. This position has already paid off to the tune of $27K, yielding a 14% return as the market currently places Vance's nomination probability at 56.8%.

Bitcoin Bears Dig Incrypto92.5%+$1K (9% return)

Despite recent market chatter, the long-term outlook for Bitcoin appears bearish on Polymarket. The "Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026?" market is priced at a staggering 92.5%, suggesting strong conviction that the cryptocurrency will see significant downside. Today's top earner, 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465, holds NO shares in this market, meaning they are betting against the dip. Their conviction bet, placed 87 days ago at an average entry of $0.85, has already generated a $1K profit, a 9% return, as the market moves further into "yes" territory.

Esports Finals: Falcons Soar17.5%+$4K

The CS2 EWC 2026 tournament is underway, and the esports prediction markets are buzzing. Team Falcons are drawing significant attention, with their chances of winning currently at 17.5%. Trader afkpnlucl has shown strong conviction, holding YES shares in the "Will Team Falcons Win the CS2 EWC 2026?" market. This early position has already resulted in a $4K gain for afkpnlucl, as the team advances through the competition.

● MARKET MOVERS

Today's movers list reads like a graveyard for underdog bets, particularly in esports and tennis. Several "Game Winner" markets for LoL and Dota 2 saw probabilities plummet by over 70 percentage points, with "LoL: Top Esports vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner" dropping 71.5pp on $881K volume. The lone counter-trend was "Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs OG - Game 1 Winner," which surged +49.5pp to a decisive 100.0%.

▲ VOLUME SPIKES

Tennis tournaments are drawing significant attention, with the "National Bank Open: Ben Shelton vs Brandon Nakashima" market seeing $180K in 24 hours, representing 100% of its all-time volume. Similarly, the "Cincinnati Open: Cameron Norrie vs Dino Prizmic" market also saw its entire $132K volume traded today, indicating fresh interest in these matchups.

★ NEW MARKETS

The "National Bank Open: Ben Shelton vs Brandon Nakashima" market, already a volume spike leader, was created in the last 24 hours. It's quickly become a focal point, with $180K traded as bettors weigh in on the ATP showdown.

Today’s Leaderboard

#1 0x2c33..5465 +$464K  ·  #2 0xE16D..0592 +$347K  ·  #3 Weaseloftheweek +$291K  ·  #4 mentionmarket +$174K  ·  #5 theowalcott +$165K

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Markets Say — Where the smart money goes before the headlines.

marketssay.com · Data from Polymarket · AI-generated analysis · Not financial advice

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