MARKETS SAY

July 13, 2026 — Follow the smart money, daily.

Today, a single trader, 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465, captured the lion's share of Polymarket's profits, racking up an impressive +$225K. Their most lucrative move was a $210K P&L on the 'Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?' market, where they entered at an average of $0.03 and are now taking profit as the probability sits at 38.9%. This substantial gain was complemented by a $22K payout from the 'Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?' market, which resolved at 99.6%.

France World Cup Bet Pays Off38.9%+$210K (1282% return)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465 has demonstrated remarkable timing in the 'Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?' market. With the World Cup progressing, France's prospects have clearly improved from earlier stages. This trader capitalized on an early entry at an average price of $0.03, now holding YES shares as the market probability sits at 38.9%. Their position has yielded a $210K profit, a staggering 1282% return, and they appear to be strategically taking profit.

Burnham's PM Bid Deliverspolitics+$22K (151% return)

The market 'Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?' has now resolved, confirming Burnham's ascent to the top office. Trader 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465 had accumulated YES shares, betting on this outcome. Entering at an average of $0.40, their conviction was rewarded with a 151% return, translating to a $22K profit as the market settled at $1.00.

Hormuz Traffic Bet Paysworld+$89K (20% return)

Geopolitical tensions around the Strait of Hormuz have eased, leading to the resolution of the 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?' market. The Spirit of Ukraine>UMA made a significant $89K profit by holding NO shares, betting against a swift return to normalcy. Their strategy of accumulating shares, with an average entry of $0.81, paid off with a 20% return as the market settled at $0.97. This suggests that while traffic did eventually normalize, the market reflected initial skepticism about the July 31 deadline.

Midterm Balance of Power Playpolitics56.5%+$485K (13% return)

While 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465 was busy cashing out on other markets, their substantial $485K P&L in the '2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House' market remains live. This trader holds NO shares, betting against a Democratic trifecta after the 2026 midterms. With the market currently at 56.5% probability for a D Senate and D House, their average entry of $0.50 has already yielded a 13% return, indicating a shift in expectations away from unified Democratic control.

Bitcoin ATH Bet Holds Strongcrypto95.0%+$8K (11% return)

The crypto market continues to speculate on future peaks, with the 'Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026?' market currently at a robust 95.0% probability. Trader ndb1 holds NO shares, making a conviction bet against a new Bitcoin ATH by year-end. Despite the high probability, ndb1 entered at an average of $0.86, and their position currently shows an 11% return, with a P&L of $8K. This suggests ndb1 believes the current price surge might not sustain enough to break previous records.

Bolsonaro Presidential Odds Shiftpolitics23.8%+$2K (660% return)

In the Brazilian political landscape, the market 'Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?' has seen long-term positioning. Trader cigarettes began accumulating YES shares 188 days ago, betting on a Flávio Bolsonaro victory. Their early entry at an average of $0.03 has paid off handsomely, with a current probability of 23.8% and a P&L of $2K, representing a 660% return. This suggests a significant increase in Bolsonaro's perceived chances since their initial trades.

● MARKET MOVERS

The tennis courts are active, with two Swiss Open matches seeing significant probability shifts. 'Clement Tabur vs Jurij Rodionov' surged 16.5 percentage points to 71.5%, while 'Kilian Feldbausch vs Miomir Kecmanovic' jumped 17.5pp to 47.0%. Conversely, the 'Granby: Nicolas Arseneault vs Andres Martin' market dipped 12.0pp to 31.5%. Meanwhile, short-term Bitcoin price markets resolved sharply downwards as July 13 expired, with 'Bitcoin above $66,000' dropping 4.2pp to a mere 0.2%.

▲ VOLUME SPIKES

Today's volume spikes are dominated by sports, particularly tennis. The 'Swiss Open: Clement Tabur vs Jurij Rodionov' and 'Kilian Feldbausch vs Miomir Kecmanovic' markets each saw 100% of their all-time volume, at $319K and $282K respectively. An upcoming FIFA World Cup match also drew significant interest, with 'Spread: England (-1.5)' against Argentina generating $334K in 24h volume.

★ NEW MARKETS

The tennis circuit continues to generate fresh markets, with 'Swiss Open: Clement Tabur vs Jurij Rodionov' launching with $319K in volume. Another new market, 'Kitzbuehel: Mia Ristic vs Mia Pohankova', quickly attracted $79K, indicating strong interest in these immediate outcomes.

Today’s Leaderboard

#1 0x2c33..5465 +$225K  ·  #2 Gucky-45 +$144K  ·  #3 omoi0i0 +$46K  ·  #4 ZnotluvuiSamez +$38K  ·  #5 User1244322 +$37K

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Markets Say — Where the smart money goes before the headlines.

marketssay.com · Data from Polymarket · AI-generated analysis · Not financial advice

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