MARKETS SAYMay 13, 2026 — Follow the smart money, daily. |
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Today, one trader, 0x492442EaB586F242B53bDa933fD5dE859c8A3782-1766317541188, walked away with a cool $234,000, leading a pack of top earners who collectively pulled in over $750,000. Among the standout plays, Q96s3kwozynxpau saw a staggering 1006% return on early bets for a 2028 presidential nomination, while another trader, 0x2a2C53bD278c04DA9962Fcf96490E17F3DfB9Bc1-1772479215461, rode Spain's World Cup prospects to an 881% gain. It appears the early bird gets the worm, especially when that worm is a longshot political or sporting event. |
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Spain's World Cup Odds Jump16.4%+$50K (881% return) The long road to the 2026 FIFA World Cup is already proving lucrative for some. Trader 0x2a2C53bD278c04DA9962Fcf96490E17F3DfB9Bc1-1772479215461, currently ranked #14 in daily P&L, has netted $50,000 on the 'Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?' market. Holding YES shares, their average entry was a mere $0.02, now trading at $0.16, marking an 881% return as Spain's probability to lift the trophy climbs to 16.4%. |
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AOC 2028 Bet Pays 1000%8.6%+$3K (1006% return) While 2028 feels a lifetime away, the race for the Democratic presidential nomination is already heating up on Polymarket. Trader Q96s3kwozynxpau, today's #7 top earner with $77,000 in daily P&L, has seen a remarkable 1006% return on their YES shares in the 'Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?' market. Their initial $0.01 entry is now worth $0.09, yielding a $3,000 profit as AOC's odds hover at 8.6%. |
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Esports Market Sees Massive Dropworld0.5%-61.0pp The high-stakes world of esports saw a dramatic shift today as 'Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage' plummeted by a staggering -61.0 percentage points. Now sitting at a mere 0.5% probability, the market saw $828,000 in 24-hour volume as traders reacted swiftly to the unfolding match, indicating a clear victory for Aurora Gaming or an unexpected turn of events for TheMongolz. |
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US-Iran Peace Deal Prospects Fadeworld10.5%-7.0pp Hopes for a 'US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?' took a hit today, with the market probability dropping -7.0 percentage points to 10.5%. Geopolitical developments, or perhaps a lack thereof, spurred $674,000 in 24-hour volume as traders adjusted their expectations for a swift resolution to long-standing tensions between the two nations. |
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Starmer's Leadership Odds Stabilize7.0%-8.2pp The question of 'Starmer out by May 15, 2026?' saw its probability fall by -8.2 percentage points today, settling at 7.0%. Despite the recent political maneuvering and ongoing speculation within the UK Labour Party, the market's $1.1 million in 24-hour volume suggests a decreasing belief that Keir Starmer will vacate his leadership position in the coming days. |
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● MARKET MOVERS Beyond the headlines, the biggest probability swings painted a clear picture of today's market sentiment. Esports dominated the dramatic shifts, with the 'Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Aurora Gaming' market plunging a massive -61.0pp to 0.5%. Similarly, 'LoL: Oh My God vs EDward Gaming' dropped -26.5pp to 0.1%, while a pair of 'LoL: DN SOOPers vs Dplus KIA' markets also saw -21.4pp declines. On the political front, the 'Starmer out by May 15, 2026?' market dipped -8.2pp to 7.0%, reflecting reduced immediate leadership uncertainty. |
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▲ VOLUME SPIKES Traders were exceptionally busy in several markets today, with 'Spurs vs. Timberwolves' seeing $923,000 in 24-hour volume, representing 100% of its all-time activity. Tennis matches also drew significant attention, with 'Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Casper Ruud vs Karen Khachanov' and 'Bordeaux: Rei Sakamoto vs Alexandre Muller' each generating over $150,000 in new volume. |
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★ NEW MARKETS The world of professional tennis launched several new markets today, with 'Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Casper Ruud vs Karen Khachanov' already attracting $184,000 in volume at 79.5% probability. 'Bordeaux: Rei Sakamoto vs Alexandre Muller' and 'Oeiras 4: Roman Safiullin vs Laslo Djere' also opened with strong interest, quickly accumulating $155,000 and $98,000 respectively. |
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▼ UNDERWATER CONVICTION Not every conviction bet pays off immediately. Trader gatorr, ranked #6, is holding strong on their YES shares in the 'Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?' market. Despite being down $6,000 on an $86,000 investment, with an average entry of $0.26 against a current $0.24, gatorr's continued position at 75.9% probability suggests a long-term belief in Newsom's presidential prospects. |
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Today’s Leaderboard #1 0x4924..1188 +$234K · #2 kch123 +$169K · #3 LaBradfordSmith22 +$152K · #4 Lolol12345 +$102K · #5 Borntorun +$94K |
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Markets Say — Where the smart money goes before the headlines. marketssay.com · Data from Polymarket · AI-generated analysis · Not financial advice |