MARKETS SAYMay 07, 2026 — Follow the smart money, daily. |
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Today, one anonymous whale, 0x2a2C53bD278c04DA9962Fcf96490E17F3DfB9Bc1-1772479215461, demonstrated the power of conviction, netting a staggering $1.1 million profit on the 'Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?' market. This single trade, representing a 50% return, accounts for the entire P&L in that market, solidifying Newsom's commanding 75.2% probability. Meanwhile, the prolific ScottyNooo continued a relentless climb, adding $106K to their daily tally with shrewd plays across global politics and long-shot presidential bids. |
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Newsom Whale Banks $1.1Mpolitics75.2%+$1.1M The anonymous whale 0x2a2C53bD278c04DA9962Fcf96490E17F3DfB9Bc1-1772479215461, ranked #5 today with $194K in daily P&L, has amassed a colossal $1.1 million profit in the 'Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?' market. This 50% return came as Newsom's probability for the Democratic nomination soared to 75.2%, reflecting his growing national profile and perceived strength for the 2028 cycle. The trader's significant P&L suggests an early and successful bet on the California governor's ascent. |
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ScottyNooo's Hungarian Gambit Paysworld+$3K ScottyNooo, today's #8 earner, closed out a successful bet on Hungarian politics, securing a $3K profit (17% return) as the 'Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?' market resolved. Magyar's rapid rise in the political landscape, fueled by anti-corruption sentiment, saw his probability for the top job surge to 99.9%. ScottyNooo, an accumulator in this market, had held YES shares since an average entry of $0.85, ultimately realizing a full payout as the market settled at $1.00. |
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Iran Peace Bet Sees 74% Returnworld19.2%+74% return While global tensions often dominate headlines, ScottyNooo found profit in the improbable, making $14K (a 74% return) on the 'US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?' market. Despite the market's current low probability of 19.2% for a deal, ScottyNooo, an accumulator, has been holding YES shares from an average entry of $0.11. This bet suggests a keen eye for diplomatic nuances, or perhaps a hopeful outlook, as the price of a 'YES' outcome climbed to $0.19. |
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Kamala Harris's Long Shot Pays Outpolitics5.5%+106% return ScottyNooo continues to demonstrate a knack for high-return, long-shot bets, bagging $12K (a 106% return) on the 'Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election?' market. Despite Harris's current low probability of 5.5% to win the presidency, ScottyNooo, an accumulator, bought in early, holding YES shares from an average entry of $0.03. The price has since edged up to $0.05, rewarding the trader's early conviction in her potential 2028 bid. |
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PSG's Champions League Momentum57.5%+29.0pp Paris Saint-Germain is making a strong push for the 2025–26 Champions League title, with market probabilities for them to win surging by +29.0 percentage points in the last 24 hours. Now at 57.5%, the 'Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?' market has seen $475K in 24-hour volume, reflecting renewed confidence in the French giants following recent performances in the tournament. |
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MLB Action Heats Up46.5%$87K in 24h Baseball season is in full swing, and prediction markets are reflecting the daily grind of the MLB. The 'Baltimore Orioles vs. Miami Marlins' market saw a sudden spike with $87K in 24-hour volume, representing 100% of its all-time trading. Similarly, the 'St. Louis Cardinals vs. San Diego Padres' and 'Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago Cubs' markets also generated significant, all-time high volumes of $71K and $67K respectively, as fans and traders weigh in on today's matchups. |
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● MARKET MOVERS The e-sports scene dominated the probability movers today, with several LoL matches seeing massive swings, including 'LoL: HANJIN BRION vs BNK FEARX - Game 1 Winner' soaring +60.0pp to 100.0%. Beyond gaming, PSG's Champions League odds jumped +29.0pp to 57.5%, indicating strong market belief in their title chances. |
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▲ VOLUME SPIKES MLB games saw a rush of new money, with 'Baltimore Orioles vs. Miami Marlins' trading $87K in 24 hours, representing its entire all-time volume. Tennis matches like 'Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Marcos Giron vs Marin Cilic' also broke records, generating $120K in 24h volume. |
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★ NEW MARKETS The 'Internazionali BNL d'Italia' tennis tournament continues to spawn new betting opportunities, with 'Jasmine Paolini vs Leolia Jeanjean' opening today and already seeing $99K in volume, with Paolini favored at 85.0%. |
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▼ UNDERWATER CONVICTION Not all Newsom bets are in the green; trader gatorr, ranked #12, is currently down $4K on their YES shares for 'Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?', holding firm at an average entry of $0.26 even as the price currently sits at $0.25. |
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Today’s Leaderboard #1 LaBradfordSmith22 +$383K · #2 justwins +$296K · #3 Gravia-Terminal +$275K · #4 bossoskil1 +$268K · #5 0x2a2C..5461 +$194K |
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Markets Say — Where the smart money goes before the headlines. marketssay.com · Data from Polymarket · AI-generated analysis · Not financial advice |