MARKETS SAY

March 13, 2026 — Follow the smart money, daily.

The "Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?" market just saw a monumental exit, with trader GamblingIsAllYouNeed realizing a staggering $832K profit. This top-ranked trader, #13 overall, navigated the market from an average entry of $0.50 for YES shares, ultimately selling out as the price approached $0.80, locking in a 59% return. This single move propelled the market's total earner P&L to $1.1M and underscores a significant conviction in Vance's prospects, now sitting at a robust 79.7% probability.

Vance 2028: Million-Dollar Exitpolitics79.7%+$832K

The 2028 US Presidential Election market saw a massive exit today, with trader GamblingIsAllYouNeed realizing an $832K profit. Entering the "Will JD Vance win?" market at an average of $0.50, they rode the probability up to $0.80, securing a 59% return before cashing out entirely. This substantial move highlights the market's conviction in Vance, currently sitting at a 79.7% probability, and suggests a significant shift in political sentiment or polling data. Another top trader, 0p0jogggg, also netted $267K with the same strategy.

Oil Trader Bets Against $110economy40.5%+170% return

Trader 0x2a2C53bD278c04DA9962Fcf96490E17F3DfB9Bc1-1772479215461, today's second-highest earner with +$198K, made a particularly sharp call in the "Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March?" market. Holding NO shares, they entered at an average price of just $0.15. With the market now pricing a $110 oil target at only 40.5%, their NO shares have surged, netting them a $7K profit and an impressive 170% return. This suggests a broader market skepticism about a rapid surge in oil prices this month, possibly influenced by recent supply reports or demand forecasts.

Bitcoin $65K Dip Unlikelycrypto59.5%+51% return

The same high-earning trader, 0x2a2C53bD278c04DA9962Fcf96490E17F3DfB9Bc1-1772479215461, is making a conviction bet against Bitcoin dipping to $65,000 in March. They hold NO shares in this market, having entered at an average of $0.39. With the market now indicating a 59.5% chance of the dip *not* happening, their position has yielded a $10K profit, representing a 51% return. This trade implies confidence that Bitcoin's current support levels will hold, or that any short-term volatility will not be severe enough to hit the $65,000 mark.

Geopolitical Probabilities Spikeworld96.8%+72.9pp

Geopolitical tensions are clearly reflected in today's market movers. The "Russia strike impacts Kyiv municipality during week of March 2, 2026?" market surged an astounding +87.0 percentage points to 99.9%, indicating near certainty of an event that likely already occurred or was confirmed. Simultaneously, the "Will Iran strike Israel on March 10?" market jumped +72.9 percentage points to 96.8%. These dramatic shifts, with a combined 24-hour volume of $2.8M, point to confirmed or highly probable real-world events driving immediate market consensus.

NBA Action Heats Up47.5%+$508K volume

Sports betting saw significant action today, with several NBA markets experiencing 100% of their all-time volume within the last 24 hours. The "Spread: Rockets (-7.5)" market alone commanded $508K in trading, reflecting intense interest in the New Orleans Pelicans vs. Houston Rockets game. Similarly, the "Timberwolves vs. Warriors: O/U 227.5" market saw $112K in volume, indicating strong opinions on the total points scored. This surge suggests a busy night for basketball fans and traders alike, potentially driven by key matchups or playoff implications.

● MARKET MOVERS

Two major geopolitical markets saw near-certainty confirmed today, with "Russia strike impacts Kyiv" up +87.0pp to 99.9% and "Iran strike Israel" up +72.9pp to 96.8%. On the esports front, Dota 2's "Heroic vs Vici Gaming" also hit 100.0% after a +50.0pp jump, while its Counter-Strike counterpart plummeted -43.0pp to 0.1%.

▲ VOLUME SPIKES

NBA markets dominated the volume spikes, with "Rockets (-7.5) spread" seeing $508K and "Timberwolves vs. Warriors O/U 227.5" hitting $112K, both representing 100% of their all-time volume in the last 24 hours. Hockey also got in on the action with "Oilers vs. Blues" trading $760K.

★ NEW MARKETS

New markets are reflecting immediate sports interest, with the "Rockets (-7.5) spread" already at $508K volume and "Timberwolves vs. Warriors: O/U 227.5" at $112K, both opening in the last day. The "Final Stage: Dominican Rep. vs. South Korea" WBC market also opened with $78K.

Today’s Leaderboard

#1 kch123 +$302K  ·  #2 0x2a2C..5461 +$198K  ·  #3 CemeterySun +$194K  ·  #4 bossoskil1 +$122K  ·  #5 0x6a57..5496 +$110K

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marketssay.com · Data from Polymarket · AI-generated analysis · Not financial advice